Quarterly Market Update and Outlook | July 2023
By Nancy Curtin
Read the highlights from our Quarterly Market Update and Outlook. For more detail, please download the full commentary below.
A strong quarter for stock market returns; positive for other risk assets.
- The second quarter saw strong gains across global equities, led by the US. The S&P 500 rose 8.3%, its biggest quarterly advance since the fourth quarter of 2021.
- Through June 30, the S&P 500 gained 16.9%, its best first half since 2019. Global markets were also strong but lagged the US.
- US stock market gains were highly concentrated 7: technology companies accounted for the lion’s share of the S&P’s return.
- Bond returns were driven mainly by income as intermediate and long duration government bond yields were mostly unchanged.
- On the Diversified asset side, gold, high yield bonds and hedge funds had modest gains.
Lots of good news everywhere in the face of investors cautiously positioned.
- Sentiment was highly bearish entering 2023 and many investors lightened their equity exposure in favor of attractive cash yields.
- We had continued to maintain that 2023 would be a good year for risk assets and that investors should remain fully invested.
- The second quarter took many by surprise as was marked by significantly better news versus expectations: resilient growth, lower inflation, excitement around Generative AI, less banking stress, and resolved US debt deal.
- Good news sent investors and strategists scrambling to adjust positions.
Does this mean continued strength in risk assets ahead?
- After strong gains, the US market needs to consolidate, and breadth needs to widen.
- We still believe the US economy will slow into the back end of this year as Central Banks continue to tighten. Liquidity may be pressured by reduced lending.
- Risks to near term economic and earnings growth remain.
- However, when the S&P 500 gains more than 10% in the first half, the rest of the year tends to be positive (albeit with volatility).
An improving picture as we look forward to 2024.
- We weigh the above near-term concerns with our more optimistic forward-looking view into 2024.
- The global economy may slow but from a higher base, providing more resilience than expected.
- We believe inflation will continue to ease as the year progresses.
- Hence, we think the worst of the 2022 bear market is behind us.
Download our full commentary below.
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